Interesting commentary on varying volatility, economic regime change, and confidence in scenarios.
Amplifies my belief that scenarios (for important foundational unknowns, potential regime changes, and stress testing) and probabilistic modeling for business-as-usual risks can and need to coexist for good risk-informed decisionmaking.
And it's a cool title to boot.
Rhys Bidder: Animal spirits and business cycles
Principal, Balanced Risk Strategies, Ltd..