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News and thoughts. Read at your own risk!

Risk vs uncertainty

13/1/2017

 
Since I consult both in risk management and decisionmaking under uncertainty, I often (including this week!) get asked about what is the difference in the two terms. It's not that easy to answer without resorting to a "we're gonna define it this way, and damn the consequences if other people use the term to mean something a bit different" brute force solution.

Here's an excerpt (from the book I'm writing) on how I see the difference. Basically, it's not about "when is an uncertainty a risk" and more about "where are we in the decisionmaking process" and "is there an expected base case future trajectory (and, in particular, a set of objectives)". Warning: 1400 words.

Comments welcome. We need to be pragmatic rather than prescriptive about this.
170113_risk_vs_uncertainty_v2.pdf
File Size: 581 kb
File Type: pdf
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Transition to new platform

12/1/2017

 
Balanced Risk Strategies has changed web hosting providers. Content, including blog postings, have been fully copied over. Unfortunately, blog post comments (there were not many...) have not made the transition.

The good news is that the new provider has a much better blog platform, including commenting and spam protection.

If by chance you subscribed to this blog via an RSS feed, you will have to change it -- see the RSS button at right. Apologies for the inconvenience.

    Martin Pergler

    Principal, Balanced Risk Strategies, Ltd..

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  • Home
  • About Martin Pergler
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  • Why balance?
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